Opportunity Zone Evaluation

Comprehensive impact assessment of the federal Opportunity Zone program.

Overview

The Opportunity Zone program provides tax incentives for investment in designated low-income census tracts. This notebook provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating OZ impacts using rigorous causal inference methods.

Methods

Difference-in-Differences

• Comparing designated vs. eligible-but-not-designated tracts
• Parallel trends validation
• Event study specifications

Synthetic Control

• Constructing counterfactuals for specific zones
• Placebo testing across non-designated tracts

Outcomes Examined

Housing Markets

• Home prices and rents
• Housing starts and permits
• Displacement indicators

Business Investment

• Establishment counts
• Employment growth

Community Outcomes

• Poverty rates
• Income distribution

Equity Analysis

The notebook includes specific attention to:

• Displacement risk: Are original residents benefiting or being displaced?
• Investment targeting: Where is capital actually flowing?
• Distributional effects: Who gains and who loses?