Workforce Development ROI

Cost-benefit analysis for workforce programs that meets OMB Circular A-4 standards.

Overview

Workforce development programs need rigorous evaluation to justify continued funding and identify what works. This notebook provides a complete framework for estimating program ROI using quasi-experimental methods and administrative data.

Methods

Impact Estimation

• Propensity score matching on administrative records
• Difference-in-differences with matched comparison groups
• Bounds analysis under selection on unobservables

Cost-Benefit Framework

• OMB Circular A-4 compliant methodology
• Proper discounting and time horizons
• Sensitivity analysis on key parameters

Outcomes Measured

Earnings Impacts

• Short-term (1-2 years post-program)
• Medium-term (3-5 years)
• Long-term projections with decay assumptions

Fiscal Effects

• Tax revenue changes
• Transfer payment reductions
• Program cost accounting

Key Outputs

Net Present Value (NPV)

• From participant perspective
• From government perspective
• From social perspective

Benefit-Cost Ratio

• Point estimates with confidence intervals
• Sensitivity to discount rate
• Break-even analysis